WN 2278 · HOU → MDW

departs 8:56 PM CT · arrives 11:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MDW?

On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 0.4 in of rain forecast at HOU that day

↑ 8pm departures from HOU are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MDW usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HOU (origin) Gusts25 kt Ceiling7,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.37 in

MDW (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.51 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2278 · HOU → MDW

Odds over time

How late will it get to MDW?