Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2280
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2280 · SJC → LAS
departs 6:00 AM PT · arrives 7:35 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 6%
Fri 10/2 4%
Mon 10/5 3%
Tue 10/6 2%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
2%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
2%
Leave 15+ late
2%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Leave SJC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
97%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC
Weather at each end
SJC (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.