Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2309 · LAS → PHX
departs 5:55 AM PT · arrives 7:10 AM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 4%
Fri 10/2 4%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 3%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
LAS is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from LAS are usually not late
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.