Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2325
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2325 · SAN → SMF
departs 9:45 AM PT · arrives 11:25 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 36%
Fri 10/2 29%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
9am departures from SAN are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.