Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2386
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
WN 2386 · DEN → SFO
departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 9:50 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Today 19%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
−17 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −17 pts in 24h
−17 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 52% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.