WN 2406 · SAN → TUS

took off 9:49 AM PT · landed 10:41 AM MT (scheduled 8:58 AM PT → 10:25 AM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to TUS?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↓ Arrivals into TUS at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

TUS (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2406 · SAN → TUS

Odds over time

How late did it get to TUS?