Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2412 LANDED 8:36 AM CT, ~6 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 2412 · LGA → MDW

took off 7:55 AM ET · landed 8:36 AM CT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Other factors

↑ LGA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

LGA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MDW (destination) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2412 · LGA → MDW

Odds over time