WN 2416 · SNA → SMF

departs 7:54 PM PT · arrives 9:33 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±1 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SNA (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2416 · SNA → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?