Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2430 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 2430 · BUR → SJC

departs 7:30 PM PT · arrives 8:16 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

BUR (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2430 · BUR → SJC

Odds over time