WN 2431 · SAN → PDX

departs 4:34 PM PT · arrives 7:18 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

45% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
27%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 32% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PDX

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2431 · SAN → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?