Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2470
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2470 · LGA → MSY
departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 9:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 56%
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 27%
Tue 10/6 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
49%
chance · ±0 pts
+34 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
49%
Leave 15+ late
69%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +34 pts in 24h
+34 pts
49%
Yes 49%
No 51%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +45 pts in 24h
+45 pts
69%
Yes 69%
No 31%
Arrive at MSY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to MSY?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
33%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MSY (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.