Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2475
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2475 · BWI → MDW
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:00 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
26%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
26%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
1pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.44 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.