Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2478
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2478 · MCI → MDW
departs 3:40 PM CT · arrives 5:10 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±1 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 47% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
MCI usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.39 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.