WN 247 · SAN → SEA

took off 7:11 AM PT · expected to land 9:32 AM PT (scheduled 7:05 AM PT → 9:57 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts −13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 36% of the time recently

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↑ SAN is busy at that time

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling3,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 247 · SAN → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?