Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2502
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2502 · AUS → JAX
departs 3:55 PM CT · arrives 7:35 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
33%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day
↑
3pm departures from AUS are often late
↑
Arrivals into JAX at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX
Weather at each end
AUS (origin)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.17 in
JAX (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.