WN 2520 · ABQ → OAK

took off 10:18 AM MT · landed 11:16 AM PT (scheduled 9:58 AM MT → 11:27 AM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OAK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at ABQ that day

↓ 9am departures from ABQ are usually not late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

ABQ (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precip0.16 in

OAK (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2520 · ABQ → OAK

Odds over time

How late did it get to OAK?