WN 2530 · MCI → PHX

departs 2:17 PM CT · arrives 3:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.7 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ PHX is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.70 in

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2530 · MCI → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?