WN 2531 · MCI → PHX

departs 6:11 PM CT · arrives 7:10 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

28% chance · ±0 pts +22 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.28 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2531 · MCI → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?