Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2534
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2534 · SAN → SMF
departs 12:45 PM PT · arrives 2:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
62%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +31 pts in 24h
+31 pts
62%
Yes 62%
No 38%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
23%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is busy at that time
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.