WN 2538 · MCI → STL

took off 5:23 PM CT · landed 6:00 PM CT (scheduled 4:36 PM CT → 5:49 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to STL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at MCI that day

↑ 4pm departures from MCI are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MCI usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.29 in

STL (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2538 · MCI → STL

Odds over time

How late did it get to STL?