Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2568 LANDED 12:19 PM ET, ~1 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 2568 · MCO → BWI

took off 10:31 AM ET · landed 12:19 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↑ 10am departures from MCO are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2568 · MCO → BWI

Odds over time