Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2581 LANDED 11:18 AM MT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 2581 · MCO → DEN

took off 10:02 AM ET · landed 11:18 AM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 12h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2581 · MCO → DEN

Odds over time