Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2617 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30

WN 2617 · MCO → MKE

took off 8:31 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 7:12 PM ET → 9:10 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

30% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
14%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 367 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ MKE usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility2 mi Precip0.42 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2617 · MCO → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?