WN 2622 · SAN → STS

departs 7:39 PM PT · arrives 9:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at STS more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to STS?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 26% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STS

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

STS (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2622 · SAN → STS

Odds over time

How late will it get to STS?