WN 262 · AUS → BNA

took off 4:45 PM CT · expected to land 6:20 PM CT (scheduled 3:34 PM CT → 5:50 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

99% chance · ±0 pts −9 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BNA?

LIVE

On time or early
1%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
77%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 3pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

BNA (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 262 · AUS → BNA

Odds over time

How late will it get to BNA?