WN 2638 · SMF → ONT

departs 1:22 PM PT · arrives 2:56 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at ONT more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to ONT?

On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from SMF are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ONT (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2638 · SMF → ONT

Odds over time

How late will it get to ONT?