Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 263 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 263 · LAS → RNO

took off 5:37 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from LAS are often late

↑ Other factors

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RNO (destination) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 263 · LAS → RNO

Odds over time