Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2693
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2693 · BWI → ROC
departs 5:05 PM ET · arrives 6:25 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 17%
Sun 10/4 27%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+9 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +9 pts in 24h
+9 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave BWI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BWI are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BWI
Weather at each end
BWI (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 7,714 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
ROC (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.