WN 269 · SEA → PHX

departs 11:45 AM PT · arrives 2:30 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±4 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

PHX (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 269 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?