Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2728
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2728 · SMF → MDW
departs 5:25 AM PT · arrives 11:20 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 9%
Fri 10/2 6%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 5%
Mon 10/5 6%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,000 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.9 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Other factors
↑
SMF is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
5am departures from SMF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.87 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.