WN 2769 · TPA → BUF

took off 7:12 PM ET · expected to land 9:32 PM ET (scheduled 7:04 PM ET → 9:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +15 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to BUF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day

↑ 7pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ BUF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

BUF (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2769 · TPA → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?