WN 2774 · AUS → SFO

took off 12:31 PM CT · landed 1:45 PM PT (scheduled 12:09 PM CT → 1:45 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 3:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to SFO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts24 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2774 · AUS → SFO

Odds over time

How late did it get to SFO?