Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2782
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2782 · DEN → TUS
departs 3:20 PM MT · arrives 4:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 15h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 30%
Tue 10/6 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±2 pts
−8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
51%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.9d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed −8 pts in 24h
−8 pts
51%
Yes 51%
No 49%
Arrive at TUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −15 pts in 24h
−15 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TUS?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
DEN is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUS
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.34 in
TUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.