WN 2786 · AMA → LAS

departs 3:41 PM CT · arrives 3:53 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AMA that day

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

AMA (origin) Gusts29 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.77 in

LAS (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2786 · AMA → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?