Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2793
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2793 · PVD → TPA
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 4:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave PVD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at TPA that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at PVD that day
Weather at each end
PVD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.