WN 2796 · MDW → PHX

departs 8:15 PM CT · arrives 10:03 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±3 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 1.0 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ 8pm departures from MDW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.94 in

PHX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2796 · MDW → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?