WN 2817 · DEN → JAX

departs 3:10 PM MT · arrives 8:22 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?

64% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to JAX?

On time or early
36%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
23%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at DEN that day

↑ 3pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 14% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JAX

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.35 in

JAX (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2817 · DEN → JAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to JAX?