WN 282 · AUS → ELP

took off 5:24 PM CT · landed 5:41 PM MT (scheduled 5:14 PM CT → 5:59 PM MT)

Forecast issued Wed 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at ELP more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts −8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ELP?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft forecast at AUS that day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ AUS usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.14 in

ELP (destination) Gusts26 kt Ceiling5,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 282 · AUS → ELP

Odds over time

How late did it get to ELP?