Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2848
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2848 · BNA → ORF
departs 1:05 PM CT · arrives 3:50 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 5:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Tue 10/6 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at ORF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
BNA is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORF
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORF (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.