Schedule: FAA flight plans.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2873 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Wednesday, September 30 Today

WN 2873 · SJC → LGB

took off 5:17 PM PT · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 4:52 PM PT → 6:17 PM PT)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at LGB more than 15 minutes late?

13% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGB?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LGB at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from SJC are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LGB (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2873 · SJC → LGB

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGB?