Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2885
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2885 · PHX → SMF
departs 8:10 AM MT · arrives 10:05 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 1h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 7%
Fri 10/2 7%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 9%
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is busy at that time
↑
SMF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.