Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2893
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2893 · MDW → SFO
departs 9:30 PM CT · arrives 12:15 AM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 54%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sun 10/4 34%
Mon 10/5 29%
Tue 10/6 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
60%
chance · ±0 pts
+12 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
60%
Leave 15+ late
71%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
2.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +12 pts in 24h
+12 pts
60%
Yes 60%
No 40%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 55% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
71%
Yes 71%
No 29%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
40%
15–30 min late
31%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from MDW are often late
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.84 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.