Schedule: a typical summer Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2946
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30
WN 2946 · RDU → MDW
departs 7:40 AM ET · arrives 8:35 AM CT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day
↑
Other factors
↑
MDW is busy at that time
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 4 mi Precip none
MDW (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2.5 mi Precip 0.94 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.