Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2956
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Today
WN 2956 · MKE → SAN
departs 2:45 PM CT · arrives 4:55 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/1 33%
Fri 10/2 28%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MKE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MKE that day
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late
↓
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at SAN that day
↓
MKE usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
MKE (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.37 in
SAN (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.