WN 2963 · OAK → BUR

departs 5:01 PM PT · arrives 6:26 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at BUR more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to BUR?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ WN's recent on-time record

↑ 5pm departures from OAK are often late

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUR (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2963 · OAK → BUR

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUR?