Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 29
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, September 30 Yesterday
WN 29 · PHX → RNO
departs 9:45 PM MT · arrives 11:35 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 3h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 9/30
Tue 10/6 20%
Wed 10/7 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
78%
chance · ±0 pts
+52 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
78%
Leave 15+ late
77%
Arrive 1h+ late
31%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RNO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +52 pts in 24h
+52 pts
78%
Yes 78%
No 22%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed +47 pts in 24h
+47 pts
77%
Yes 77%
No 23%
Arrive at RNO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +24 pts in 24h
+24 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to RNO?
On time or early
22%
15–30 min late
63%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
WN's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RNO (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.