Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3011 LANDED 11:40 AM PT, ~9 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 3011 · OAK → SAN

took off 10:29 AM PT · landed 11:40 AM PT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OAK (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAN (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3011 · OAK → SAN

Odds over time