Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3019 LANDED 9:42 AM ET, ~2 MIN EARLY · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Wednesday, September 30

WN 3019 · CMH → TPA

took off 7:59 AM ET · landed 9:42 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 14h after departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

6% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ TPA is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH

Weather at each end

CMH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.01 in

TPA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.44 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3019 · CMH → TPA

Odds over time