WN 3078 · DEN → ORF

took off 3:15 PM MT · landed 8:25 PM ET (scheduled 2:54 PM MT → 8:31 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at ORF more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts −31 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to ORF?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in September are usually quieter than average

↓ ORF usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

ORF (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling4,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3078 · DEN → ORF

Odds over time

How late did it get to ORF?