WN 3086 · MDW → DSM

took off 10:59 AM CT · landed 11:54 AM CT (scheduled 10:24 AM CT → 11:42 AM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 9:00 PM ET · 10h after departure

Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DSM?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
✓
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at MDW that day

↑ Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at DSM that day

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↓ DSM usually runs smoothly

↓ Arrivals into DSM at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

MDW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precip0.98 in

DSM (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility1.5 mi Precip1.40 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 3086 · MDW → DSM

Odds over time

How late did it get to DSM?